Uncertainty analysis of 100-year flood maps under climate change scenarios

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Saba Mirza Alipour of the Faculty of Engineering and Science at the University of Agder has submitted her thesis entitled «Uncertainty analysis of 100-year flood maps under climate change scenarios» and will defend the thesis for the PhD-degree Thursday 8 December 2022. 

She has followed the PhD programme in Engineering and Science at UiA, with with Specialisation in Engineering Sciences, scientific field Renewable Energy.

Read the summary of the thesis by Saba Mirza Alipour:

Flood inundation modeling: importance and application

Floods are disastrous natural hazards that throughout history have had and still have major adverse impacts on people’s life, the economy, and the environment. One very recent example was the flood of July 2021 in several European countries including Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, in which over 200 people were killed, and billions of euros economic losses happened.

One of the useful tools for flood management are flood maps, which are developed to identify flood-prone areas and can be used by insurance companies, local authorities, and land planners for rescue and taking proper actions against flood hazards.

Uncertainty issues in flood modeling:

Developing flood maps is often carried out by flood inundation modeling tools such as 2D hydrodynamic models. However, often flood maps are generated using a single deterministic model outcome without considering the uncertainty that arises from different sources and propagates through the modeling process.

Moreover, the increasing number of flood events in the last decades combined with the effects of global climate change requires developing accurate and safe flood maps in which the uncertainty has been considered.

Therefore, the present work aims to contribute to the understanding about uncertainty in 2D flood modeling and to establish a comprehensible and feasible methodology to assess it under climate change scenarios.

Opponent ex auditorio:

The chair invites members of the public to pose questions ex auditorio in the introduction to the public defense. Deadline is during the break between the two opponents. The person asking questions should have read the thesis. For online audience the Contact Persons e-mail are available in the chat function during the Public Defense, and questions ex auditorio can be submitted to Kristine Evensen Reinfjord at e-mail kristine.reinfjord@uia.no